Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (71%) · Celtics at 62¢ · $647 held · ended Nov 11

76ers38¢Celtics62¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 71%

Total Value

$647.41

Combined PnL

$0.47

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 62¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers38%

Celtics62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$461.26

Total Shares738

Combined PnL+$10.27

76ers2 traders

Total Value$186.15

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$9.8

Celtics — 71%76ers — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 61¢	$282.83	$287.68	+$4.85	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
LI LightParadoxCTR	76ersavg 40¢	$163.72	$155.53	-$8.19	28% 274-715 (989)
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 60¢	$103.54	$95.75	+$3.37	48% 947-1017 (1964)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Celticsavg 60¢	$40.29	$41.64	+$1.34	48% 190-206 (396)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$32.23	$30.62	-$1.61	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 60¢	$26.2	$26.98	+$0.78	49% 443-470 (913)
nigiri99<$100	Celticsavg 62¢	$9.3	$9.23	-$0.08	52% 128-120 (248)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$282.83

Value

$287.68

PnL

+$4.85

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

LightParadoxCTR

76ers

Invested

$163.72

Value

$155.53

PnL

-$8.19

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$103.54

Value

$95.75

PnL

+$3.37

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

SnakeBall<$100

Celtics

Invested

$40.29

Value

$41.64

PnL

+$1.34

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$32.23

Value

$30.62

PnL

-$1.61

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$26.2

Value

$26.98

PnL

+$0.78

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

nigiri99<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.