Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors 76ers (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-5.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (60%) · Celtics at 38¢ · $35 held · ended Nov 11

Celtics38¢76ers62¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 60%

Total Value

$34.81

Combined PnL

$0.52

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics38%

76ers62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$31.51

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$0.42

76ers2 traders

Total Value$3.3

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.1

Celtics — 60%76ers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Celticsavg 36¢	$11.25	$11.41	+$0.16	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Celticsavg 37¢	$10.36	$10.75	+$0.39	48% 190-206 (396)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Celticsavg 37¢	$9.48	$9.36	-$0.13	42% 574-809 (1383)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 62¢	$1.63	$1.67	+$0.04	49% 443-470 (913)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 61¢	$1.56	$1.63	+$0.06	48% 947-1017 (1964)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.41

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$10.36

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.48

Value

$9.36

PnL

-$0.13

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.