Spread: Celtics (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (57%) · 76ers at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
7
76ers 57%
$1.7K
$2.42
56¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | 76ersavg 56¢ | $609.28 | $603.84 | -$5.44 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
73 739633786CTR | Celticsavg 44¢ | $484 | $495 | +$11 | 3% 5-185 (190) |
 VeryLucky888 | 76ersavg 55.6¢ | $484.48 | $483.84 | -$0.64 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | 76ersavg 58¢ | $84.24 | $81.33 | -$2.9 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 45¢ | $9.45 | $9.45 | +$0 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 42¢ | $7.14 | $7.65 | +$0.51 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | 76ersavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $5.6 | -$0.1 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
nigiri99Invested
$609.28
Value
$603.84
PnL
-$5.44
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
Invested
$484
Value
$495
PnL
+$11
Record
3%
5-185 (190)
VeryLucky888Invested
$484.48
Value
$483.84
PnL
-$0.64
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
Invested
$84.24
Value
$81.33
PnL
-$2.9
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$0.51
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.