Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors 76ers (53%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-2.5)

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (100%) · Celtics at 48¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 11

Celtics48¢76ers52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

-$25.42

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 47.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics48%

76ers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares11,130

Combined PnL-$25.42

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 52.2¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$129.95	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52.2¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$28.9
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 45¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$101.05
nehcnehcCTR	Celticsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$49.24	19% 13-57 (70)
GC GC-PARB<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$485	$500	+$15	16% 66-347 (413)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 45¢	$225	$237.5	+$12.5
NM NM-PARB<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$485	$500	+$15	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 45¢	$225	$237.5	+$12.5
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Celticsavg 46¢	$401.01	$414.09	+$13.08	70% 1655-702 (2357)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Celticsavg 44.7¢	$94.51	$100.36	+$5.84	47% 148-167 (315)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Celticsavg 45¢	$71.1	$75.05	+$3.95	48% 840-912 (1752)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 45¢	$11.25	$11.88	+$0.63	48% 420-450 (870)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Celticsavg 45¢	$7.2	$7.52	+$0.32	25% 214-632 (846)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$7,124.45

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$129.95

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

76ers$5,305.6352.2¢+$28.9

Celtics$1,818.8245¢+$101.05

nehcnehcCTR

Celtics

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$49.24

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

GC-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$485

Value

$500

PnL

+$15

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

Both legs:

Invested

$485

Value

$500

PnL

+$15

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

Both legs:

Invested

$401.01

Value

$414.09

PnL

+$13.08

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

SnakeBallCTR

Celtics

Invested

$94.51

Value

$100.36

PnL

+$5.84

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$71.1

Value

$75.05

PnL

+$3.95

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

48%

420-450 (870)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0.32

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.