Spread: Celtics (-30.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (40%) · Bucks at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 40%
$3.9K
$2.1
90.4¢ → 91¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Bucksavg 90.3¢ | $3.3K | $3.0K | +$10.57 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
SE sentrio | Bucksavg 90.5¢ | $718.39 | $650.14 | +$0.22 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
 nigiri99CTR | Celticsavg 9.8¢ | $292.59 | $282.25 | -$10.35 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Celticsavg 9¢ | $828.89 | $27.67 | +$1.44 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 9¢ | $45 | $4.27 | +$0.22 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
Invested
$3,268.85
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$10.57
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$718.39
Value
$650.14
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$292.59
Value
$282.25
PnL
-$10.35
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$828.89
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$1.44
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$45
Value
$4.27
PnL
+$0.22
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.