Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (43%) · Celtics at 94¢ · $934 held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 43%
$934.32
-$15.07
71.1¢ → 93.5¢
+32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Celticsavg 64.7¢ | $347.95 | $500.19 | +$152.24 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
38 38791873984189 | Celticsavg 82.5¢ | $248.67 | $231.37 | -$17.3 | 48% 70301-75984 (146285) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 20¢ | $90.03 | $87.78 | -$2.25 | 49% 2223-2352 (4575) |
 RN1CTR | Bucksavg 31.3¢ | $197.29 | $48.59 | -$148.7 | 53% 70249-61821 (132070) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Celticsavg 80¢ | $40.29 | $41.06 | +$0.77 | 52% 27288-24794 (52082) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 18¢ | $15.76 | $16.17 | +$0.41 | 53% 14337-12646 (26983) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 20¢ | $9.4 | $9.17 | -$0.24 | 47% 2157-2403 (4560) |
Invested
$347.95
Value
$500.19
PnL
+$152.24
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$248.67
Value
$231.37
PnL
-$17.3
Record
48%
70301-75984 (146285)
Invested
$90.03
Value
$87.78
PnL
-$2.25
Record
49%
2223-2352 (4575)
RN1CTRInvested
$197.29
Value
$48.59
PnL
-$148.7
Record
53%
70249-61821 (132070)
Invested
$40.29
Value
$41.06
PnL
+$0.77
Record
52%
27288-24794 (52082)
Invested
$15.76
Value
$16.17
PnL
+$0.41
Record
53%
14337-12646 (26983)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.17
PnL
-$0.24
Record
47%
2157-2403 (4560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.