Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5

3 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (19%) · Under at 76¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 3

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 19%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$199.66

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 76¢

+45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 16 top traders (19%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares8,905

Combined PnL+$683.67

Over13 traders

Total Value$657.17

Total Shares3,027

Combined PnL-$484.01

Under — 19%Over — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.4¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$499.78	54% 17558-14752 (32310)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 52¢	$335.58	$519.5	+$183.92	48% 5736-6182 (11918)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$449.65	$374.15	-$75.5	51% 21013-19995 (41008)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.2¢	$279.19	$199.52	-$79.67
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.3¢	$170.46	$174.62	+$4.17
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$560.81	$353.29	-$90.59	47% 13872-15352 (29224)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.7¢	$303.84	$213.89	-$102.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$120.12	$139.4	+$11.59
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 39.4¢	$751.57	$151.96	-$145.36	54% 3482-3017 (6499)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 40¢	$115.48	$118.04	+$2.57	62% 4302-2642 (6944)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46¢	$447.5	$87.26	-$118.59	50% 34952-34399 (69351)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 31.9¢	$83.42	$82.26	-$1.16	53% 11351-9949 (21300)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 41¢	$400	$78	-$86	51% 1616-1563 (3179)
RN1CTR	Overavg 46¢	$250	$48.75	-$66.25	54% 58465-50687 (109152)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 40¢	$213.1	$41.55	-$43.69	49% 13653-14459 (28112)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41.5¢	$43.28	$21.34	-$9.24	57% 17528-13093 (30621)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$15.59	$10.13	-$5.46	53% 869-774 (1643)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$15.6	$9.2	-$6.4	58% 29992-22012 (52004)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$11.4	$6.56	-$4.85	50% 25102-24809 (49911)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.32	$1.17	-$0.15	54% 21779-18820 (40599)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 74¢	$1.11	$1.08	-$0.03	52% 6773-6135 (12908)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.39	$0.95	+$0.56	48% 6610-7170 (13780)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,384.97

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$499.78

Record

54%

17558-14752 (32310)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$335.58

Value

$519.5

PnL

+$183.92

Record

48%

5736-6182 (11918)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$449.65

Value

$374.15

PnL

-$75.5

Record

51%

21013-19995 (41008)

Both legs:

Over$279.1939.2¢-$79.67

Under$170.4670.3¢+$4.17

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$560.81

Value

$353.29

PnL

-$90.59

Record

47%

13872-15352 (29224)

Both legs:

Over$303.8444.7¢-$102.18

Under$120.1259¢+$11.59

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$751.57

Value

$151.96

PnL

-$145.36

Record

54%

3482-3017 (6499)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$115.48

Value

$118.04

PnL

+$2.57

Record

62%

4302-2642 (6944)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$447.5

Value

$87.26

PnL

-$118.59

Record

50%

34952-34399 (69351)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$83.42

Value

$82.26

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

11351-9949 (21300)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$78

PnL

-$86

Record

51%

1616-1563 (3179)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$250

Value

$48.75

PnL

-$66.25

Record

54%

58465-50687 (109152)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$213.1

Value

$41.55

PnL

-$43.69

Record

49%

13653-14459 (28112)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.28

Value

$21.34

PnL

-$9.24

Record

57%

17528-13093 (30621)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.59

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$5.46

Record

53%

869-774 (1643)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.6

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$6.4

Record

58%

29992-22012 (52004)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.4

Value

$6.56

PnL

-$4.85

Record

50%

25102-24809 (49911)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

21779-18820 (40599)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

6773-6135 (12908)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

6610-7170 (13780)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 16 top traders (19%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.