Spread: Knicks (-15.5)

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (47%) · Nets at 67¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 3

Knicks33¢Nets67¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$290.74

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 67¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks33%

Nets67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares11,528

Combined PnL+$62.9

Nets8 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares12,647

Combined PnL+$227.84

Knicks — 53%Nets — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKnicks 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 50% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBackCTR	Knicksavg 48¢	$4.7K	$5.0K	+$295.47	61% 4000-2514 (6514)
HO HomeRunHazard	Netsavg 52¢	$4.4K	$4.8K	+$127.3	54% 17545-14744 (32289)
Reformedx	Netsavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$87.29	52% 848-798 (1646)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Knicksavg 45¢	$510.78	$280.13	+$39.34	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 45¢	$180	$204	+$24
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 52.2¢	$69.73	$76.13	+$15.34
VI vibing123	Netsavg 53¢	$245.9	$264.45	+$18.56	52% 1582-1469 (3051)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Knicksavg 44.3¢	$517.13	$251.86	-$265.27	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Netsavg 55¢	$220	$228	+$8	51% 1616-1562 (3178)
38 38791873984189CTR	Knicksavg 48.1¢	$149	$158.41	+$9.4	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Knicksavg 46.7¢	$120.15	$131.33	+$11.17	50% 34946-34393 (69339)
VE Venusian<$100	Netsavg 52¢	$66.72	$72.48	+$5.76	52% 605-551 (1156)
LI LightParadox<$100	Netsavg 57¢	$66.12	$66.12	+$0	54% 629-546 (1175)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Netsavg 64.6¢	$85.32	$64.68	-$20.64	53% 11337-9944 (21281)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Knicksavg 47¢	$12.29	$13.34	+$1.05	50% 25084-24791 (49875)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Knicksavg 8.5¢	$2.12	$12.75	+$10.63	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$12.24	$12.24	+$0	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Netsavg 49¢	$9.61	$11.18	+$1.57	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Knicksavg 9¢	$1	$1.37	+$0.37	48% 5733-6182 (11915)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Knicksavg 46¢	$0.75	$0.83	+$0.08	54% 3482-3017 (6499)

ComingBackCTR

Knicks

Invested

$4,727.52

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$295.47

Record

61%

4000-2514 (6514)

HomeRunHazard

Nets

Invested

$4,412.82

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$127.3

Record

54%

17545-14744 (32289)

Reformedx

Nets

Invested

$1,571.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$87.29

Record

52%

848-798 (1646)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$510.78

Value

$280.13

PnL

+$39.34

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

Both legs:

Knicks$18045¢+$24

Nets$69.7352.2¢+$15.34

vibing123

Nets

Invested

$245.9

Value

$264.45

PnL

+$18.56

Record

52%

1582-1469 (3051)

FlaznorpCTR

Knicks

Invested

$517.13

Value

$251.86

PnL

-$265.27

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nets

Invested

$220

Value

$228

PnL

+$8

Record

51%

1616-1562 (3178)

38791873984189CTR

Knicks

Invested

$149

Value

$158.41

PnL

+$9.4

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

SnakeBallCTR

Knicks

Invested

$120.15

Value

$131.33

PnL

+$11.17

Record

50%

34946-34393 (69339)

Venusian<$100

Nets

Invested

$66.72

Value

$72.48

PnL

+$5.76

Record

52%

605-551 (1156)

LightParadox<$100

Nets

Invested

$66.12

Value

$66.12

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

justaluckydude<$100

Nets

Invested

$85.32

Value

$64.68

PnL

-$20.64

Record

53%

11337-9944 (21281)

sentrioCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$12.29

Value

$13.34

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

25084-24791 (49875)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.12

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$10.63

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Nets

Invested

$9.61

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

3482-3017 (6499)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKnicks 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 50% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.