Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 47¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
2 arb excluded
$11.8K
-$217.59
51¢ → 46.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 49.3¢ | $4.4K | $4.6K | +$206 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.3¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$190.89 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.11 | |
 nehcnehcCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $4.7K | $4.3K | -$417.37 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 49.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$200.32 | 53% 1811-1620 (3431) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $244.35 | $243.25 | -$1.1 | 59% 3477-2367 (5844) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $184.33 | $182.6 | -$1.74 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $60.01 | $60.65 | +$0.64 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.6¢ | $32.94 | $33.47 | +$0.53 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $17.15 | $16.28 | -$0.87 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $10.73 | $10.62 | -$0.11 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.33 | -$0.07 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
Invested
$4,394.65
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$206
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,730.24
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$417.37
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
Invested
$2,363.97
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$200.32
Record
53%
1811-1620 (3431)
Invested
$244.35
Value
$243.25
PnL
-$1.1
Record
59%
3477-2367 (5844)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.94
Value
$33.47
PnL
+$0.53
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
Invested
$17.15
Value
$16.28
PnL
-$0.87
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$10.73
Value
$10.62
PnL
-$0.11
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.07
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.