Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$7.3K
-$3.6
48.8¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$35.68 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 51¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$47.48 | 53% 1818-1628 (3446) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$0 | 48% 536-588 (1124) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $125.12 | $133.28 | +$8.16 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $3.84 | $3.88 | +$0.04 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
Invested
$2,397.14
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$35.68
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$2,421.47
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$47.48
Record
53%
1818-1628 (3446)
Invested
$2,316.99
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
536-588 (1124)
Invested
$125.12
Value
$133.28
PnL
+$8.16
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.88
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.