Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$1.1K
-$25.58
58.2¢ → 63¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 60.3¢ | $430.89 | $453.95 | +$23.07 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 56¢ | $274.96 | $263.71 | -$11.25 | 45% 183-223 (406) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $183.86 | $149.15 | -$34.71 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $90.97 | $103.18 | +$12.2 | 53% 1851-1666 (3517) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $81.13 | $85.56 | +$4.43 | 58% 3212-2312 (5524) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $66.38 | $47.2 | -$19.18 | 30% 401-920 (1321) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $13.95 | -$0.15 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
RN1Invested
$430.89
Value
$453.95
PnL
+$23.07
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$274.96
Value
$263.71
PnL
-$11.25
Record
45%
183-223 (406)
Invested
$183.86
Value
$149.15
PnL
-$34.71
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$90.97
Value
$103.18
PnL
+$12.2
Record
53%
1851-1666 (3517)
Invested
$81.13
Value
$85.56
PnL
+$4.43
Record
58%
3212-2312 (5524)
Invested
$66.38
Value
$47.2
PnL
-$19.18
Record
30%
401-920 (1321)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$13.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.