Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Nets (62%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (100%) · Pelicans at 39¢ · $809 held · ends Nov 12

Pelicans39¢Nets61¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 100%

Total Value

$808.56

Combined PnL

$100.76

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 38.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans39%

Nets62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$808.56

Total Shares1,817

Combined PnL+$100.76

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 39¢	$266.37	$303.94	+$37.57	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
VE VenusianCTR	Pelicansavg 39¢	$253.46	$289.2	+$35.74	30% 376-862 (1238)
LI LimousinCTR	Pelicansavg 39¢	$146.78	$167.48	+$20.7	30% 372-863 (1235)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 38¢	$31.44	$36.81	+$5.38	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 39¢	$9.75	$11.13	+$1.38	48% 658-706 (1364)

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$266.37

Value

$303.94

PnL

+$37.57

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

VenusianCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$253.46

Value

$289.2

PnL

+$35.74

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

LimousinCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$146.78

Value

$167.48

PnL

+$20.7

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$31.44

Value

$36.81

PnL

+$5.38

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$9.75

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

658-706 (1364)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.