Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (63%) · Nets at 91¢ · $602 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Nets
8
Nets 63%
$602.17
$50.37
67.7¢ → 90.5¢
+34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNets at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Netsavg 60.5¢ | $289.67 | $285.2 | +$39.94 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
65 6512395314597884 | Netsavg 81¢ | $165.26 | $180.13 | +$14.86 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Netsavg 61¢ | $40.69 | $53.36 | +$12.67 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Netsavg 58.3¢ | $23.89 | $33.21 | +$9.32 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Netsavg 88¢ | $23.94 | $24.62 | +$0.68 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 19¢ | $38 | $19 | -$19 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 43¢ | $10.75 | $4.75 | -$6 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 40¢ | $4 | $1.9 | -$2.1 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
Invested
$289.67
Value
$285.2
PnL
+$39.94
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$165.26
Value
$180.13
PnL
+$14.86
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$40.69
Value
$53.36
PnL
+$12.67
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$23.89
Value
$33.21
PnL
+$9.32
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$24.62
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$38
Value
$19
PnL
-$19
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$6
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$4
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$2.1
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.