Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (33%) · Pelicans at 52¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pelicans
6
Pelicans 33%
1 arb excluded
$19.3K
$28.43
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPelicans at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Pelicansavg 51¢ | $10.7K | $10.8K | +$105.07 | 54% 521-440 (961) |
 nehcnehcCTR | Netsavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.23 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Netsavg 49¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$34.14 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Pelicansavg 50¢ | $304 | $310.08 | +$6.08 | 1% 5-496 (501) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Netsavg 48.9¢ | $210.24 | $123.83 | +$0.81 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 48.9¢ | $92.74 | $91.9 | -$0.74 | |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 49¢ | $30.38 | $31.93 | +$1.55 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Netsavg 48.7¢ | $42.38 | $36.85 | -$0.14 | 48% 662-711 (1373) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Netsavg 50¢ | $10 | $9.8 | -$0.2 | 51% 446-422 (868) |
Invested
$10,716.69
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$105.07
Record
54%
521-440 (961)
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,727
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.23
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
Invested
$3,345.45
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$34.14
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$304
Value
$310.08
PnL
+$6.08
Record
1%
5-496 (501)
Invested
$210.24
Value
$123.83
PnL
+$0.81
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.38
Value
$36.85
PnL
-$0.14
Record
48%
662-711 (1373)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
51%
446-422 (868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.