Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (91%) · Nets at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Pelicans17¢Nets83¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$286.5

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 83.5¢

+44% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans17%

Nets84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,265

Combined PnL+$303.17

Pelicans1 trader

Total Value$11.99

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$16.67

Nets — 91%Pelicans — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (10 on Nets) disagree here.

ctrNets 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Netsavg 66.1¢	$484.77	$580.12	+$95.35	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
LI Limousin	Netsavg 48¢	$379.61	$498.24	+$118.63	30% 402-921 (1323)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Netsavg 63¢	$162.15	$204.62	+$42.47	53% 290-259 (549)
RN1	Netsavg 76¢	$274.77	$180.51	-$42.43	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
AP AppleTiiime	Netsavg 50¢	$91.19	$152.29	+$61.1	52% 86-78 (164)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$121	$100	+$1.44	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 49¢	$49	$79.5	+$30.5
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 50¢	$50	$20.5	-$29.06
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Netsavg 47¢	$49.35	$66.15	+$16.8	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
PA Pan9X<$100	Netsavg 48¢	$33.88	$18.44	+$6.7	49% 693-734 (1427)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Netsavg 80¢	$15.1	$15.67	+$0.57	—
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 49¢	$28.66	$11.99	-$16.67	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Netsavg 42.3¢	$6.35	$9.45	+$3.1	70% 1671-717 (2388)
RA Raisuu<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$1.5	$2.39	+$0.89	58% 23-17 (40)

Flaznorp

Nets

Invested

$484.77

Value

$580.12

PnL

+$95.35

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Limousin

Nets

Invested

$379.61

Value

$498.24

PnL

+$118.63

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Nets

Invested

$162.15

Value

$204.62

PnL

+$42.47

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

RN1

Nets

Invested

$274.77

Value

$180.51

PnL

-$42.43

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

AppleTiiime

Nets

Invested

$91.19

Value

$152.29

PnL

+$61.1

Record

52%

86-78 (164)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$121

Value

$100

PnL

+$1.44

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Nets$4949¢+$30.5

Pelicans$5050¢-$29.06

HomeRunHazard<$100

Nets

Invested

$49.35

Value

$66.15

PnL

+$16.8

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Pan9X<$100

Nets

Invested

$33.88

Value

$18.44

PnL

+$6.7

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Nets

Invested

$15.1

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$0.57

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$28.66

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$16.67

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

SunlineTicker<$100

Nets

Invested

$6.35

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$3.1

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

Raisuu<$100

Nets

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.89

Record

58%

23-17 (40)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (10 on Nets) disagree here.

ctrNets 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.