Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 45¢ · $623 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$623.07
$6.3
44.2¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $428.66 | $433.53 | +$4.87 | 35% 438-797 (1235) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $78.32 | $79.21 | +$0.89 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $74.27 | $77.13 | +$2.86 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $32.18 | $27 | -$2.17 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $5.8 | $3.5 | -$0.25 | 41% 688-1006 (1694) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.7 | +$0.1 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
Invested
$428.66
Value
$433.53
PnL
+$4.87
Record
35%
438-797 (1235)
Invested
$78.32
Value
$79.21
PnL
+$0.89
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$74.27
Value
$77.13
PnL
+$2.86
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$32.18
Value
$27
PnL
-$2.17
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
41%
688-1006 (1694)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.