Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 43¢ · $562 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
$561.98
$13.77
43.9¢ → 42.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $391.24 | $406.17 | +$14.93 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $115 | $113.75 | -$1.25 | 53% 1335-1164 (2499) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 42.5¢ | $20.71 | $20.71 | +$0 | 52% 1708-1554 (3262) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.3¢ | $13.35 | $13.39 | +$0.05 | 54% 490-415 (905) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.5¢ | $4.55 | $4.55 | +$0 | 41% 687-1004 (1691) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $3.36 | $3.4 | +$0.04 | 49% 3800-3964 (7764) |
Invested
$391.24
Value
$406.17
PnL
+$14.93
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$115
Value
$113.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
53%
1335-1164 (2499)
Invested
$20.71
Value
$20.71
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1708-1554 (3262)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$13.35
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
490-415 (905)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
687-1004 (1691)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
3800-3964 (7764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.