Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 45¢ · $462 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 100%
$461.76
$22.47
42¢ → 44.5¢
+6% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 42.5¢ | $226.07 | $236.81 | +$10.74 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $128.72 | $136.38 | +$7.66 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.5¢ | $41 | $43.97 | +$2.97 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $20.49 | $22.24 | +$1.75 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $20 | $19.5 | -$0.5 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.95 | -$0.2 | 41% 702-1012 (1714) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $0.86 | $0.9 | +$0.05 | 47% 936-1036 (1972) |
Invested
$226.07
Value
$236.81
PnL
+$10.74
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$128.72
Value
$136.38
PnL
+$7.66
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Invested
$41
Value
$43.97
PnL
+$2.97
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$20.49
Value
$22.24
PnL
+$1.75
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$20
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.2
Record
41%
702-1012 (1714)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
936-1036 (1972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.