Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (33%) · Nets at 66¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Grizzlies34¢Nets66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 33%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$418.36

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 66¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies34%

Nets66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets3 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares11,917

Combined PnL+$476.52

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares11,908

Combined PnL-$58.16

Nets — 33%Grizzlies — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Netsavg 62¢	$6.8K	$7.3K	+$440.96	70% 1725-751 (2476)
VI VirIntrepidusCTR	Grizzliesavg 38¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$0	— 3-2 (5)
nigiri99	Netsavg 62¢	$543.74	$578.82	+$35.08	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Grizzliesavg 38¢	$304	$272	-$32	25% 350-1027 (1377)
38 38791873984189CTR	Grizzliesavg 38¢	$198.74	$177.82	-$20.92	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 38¢	$50.92	$45.56	-$5.36	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Netsavg 59¢	$9.44	$9.92	+$0.48	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 33¢	$2.27	$2.34	+$0.07	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.7	+$0.05	48% 2164-2307 (4471)

SunlineTicker

Nets

Invested

$6,834.88

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$440.96

Record

70%

1725-751 (2476)

VirIntrepidusCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$3,966.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-2 (5)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$543.74

Value

$578.82

PnL

+$35.08

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$304

Value

$272

PnL

-$32

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

38791873984189CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$198.74

Value

$177.82

PnL

-$20.92

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$50.92

Value

$45.56

PnL

-$5.36

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Nets

Invested

$9.44

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$0.48

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.