Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$15.28

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 45.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$857.01

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL-$34.73

Over3 traders

Total Value$231.23

Total Shares424

Combined PnL+$19.46

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$707.35	$321.85	-$11.3	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$843.81	$307.96	-$3.38	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$278.93	$279.71	+$0.78	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.7¢	$202.12	$209.18	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$77.5	$70.53	+$0.78
nigiri99	Overavg 50¢	$199	$216.91	+$17.91	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 50¢	$385.35	$175.33	-$17.34	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$84.57	$38.48	-$2.56	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 49¢	$10.43	$11.6	+$1.17	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.1	-$0.1	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.33	$4.28	-$0.05	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.99	$2.72	+$0.37	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$707.35

Value

$321.85

PnL

-$11.3

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$843.81

Value

$307.96

PnL

-$3.38

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$278.93

Value

$279.71

PnL

+$0.78

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Invested

$199

Value

$216.91

PnL

+$17.91

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$385.35

Value

$175.33

PnL

-$17.34

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.57

Value

$38.48

PnL

-$2.56

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$10.43

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.99

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.37

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.