Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Mavericks (54%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (91%) · Nets at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks54¢Nets46¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$14.62

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 46.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks54%

Nets47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,102

Combined PnL-$10.51

Nets10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,153

Combined PnL+$25.12

Mavericks — 9%Nets — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.76	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 44¢	$816.12	$843.18	+$45.56
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 59¢	$384.08	$354.78	-$35.8
RJ RJW1	Mavericksavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10.51	44% 117-149 (266)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Netsavg 45¢	$449.59	$464.57	+$14.99	48% 521-567 (1088)
GC GC-PCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$234.16	$236.8	+$2.64	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-PCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$231.13	$233.64	+$2.51	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
VeryLucky888CTR	Netsavg 46¢	$230	$227.5	-$2.5	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
LI LimousinCTR	Netsavg 45¢	$115.2	$119.04	+$3.84	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Netsavg 44¢	$85.31	$87.19	+$1.87	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
QI qinlaobanCTR<$100	Netsavg 46¢	$40.48	$40.92	+$0.44	48% 489-523 (1012)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Netsavg 46¢	$40.21	$40.65	+$0.44	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netsavg 42¢	$8.61	$9.53	+$0.92	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Netsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.28	-$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$1,188.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.76

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Nets$816.1244¢+$45.56

Mavericks$384.0859¢-$35.8

RJW1

Mavericks

Invested

$1,156.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.51

Record

44%

117-149 (266)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Nets

Invested

$449.59

Value

$464.57

PnL

+$14.99

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

GC-PCTR

Nets

Invested

$234.16

Value

$236.8

PnL

+$2.64

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-PCTR

Nets

Invested

$231.13

Value

$233.64

PnL

+$2.51

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nets

Invested

$230

Value

$227.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

LimousinCTR

Nets

Invested

$115.2

Value

$119.04

PnL

+$3.84

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$85.31

Value

$87.19

PnL

+$1.87

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

qinlaobanCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$40.48

Value

$40.92

PnL

+$0.44

Record

48%

489-523 (1012)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$40.21

Value

$40.65

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

VenusianCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$8.61

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$0.92

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.