Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (11%) · Nets at 63¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks38¢Nets62¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$444.53

Research grade

AvoidNets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks38%

Nets63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets1 trader

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares18,380

Combined PnL+$539.22

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,967

Combined PnL-$94.69

Nets — 11%Mavericks — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMavericks 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Netsavg 59.6¢	$10.9K	$11.5K	+$539.22	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 40.3¢	$12.0K	$4.9K	-$226.38	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 40.3¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$284.58
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 59.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$58.2
HI hi774cCTR	Mavericksavg 40¢	$536.53	$515.9	-$20.64	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mavericksavg 40.5¢	$1.0K	$377.66	-$30.32	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 41¢	$685	$256.88	-$23.98	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SE sentrioCTR	Mavericksavg 40.2¢	$331.21	$124.2	-$9.09	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 40¢	$282	$105.75	-$7.05	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$74.66	$73.73	-$0.93	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 40.3¢	$76	$24	-$1.81	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$25	$9.38	-$0.88	50% 8554-8723 (17277)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$10,948.28

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$539.22

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$12,004.05

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$226.38

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Mavericks$4,146.0740.3¢-$284.58

Nets$1,007.7959.1¢+$58.2

hi774cCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$536.53

Value

$515.9

PnL

-$20.64

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,007.1

Value

$377.66

PnL

-$30.32

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$685

Value

$256.88

PnL

-$23.98

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

sentrioCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$331.21

Value

$124.2

PnL

-$9.09

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$282

Value

$105.75

PnL

-$7.05

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$74.66

Value

$73.73

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$76

Value

$24

PnL

-$1.81

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RLWGCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$25

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$0.88

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMavericks 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.