Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (11%) · Nets at 62¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks39¢Nets61¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$686.8

Research grade

AvoidNets at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks39%

Nets62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets1 trader

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares20,884

Combined PnL+$995.24

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,557

Combined PnL-$308.45

Nets — 11%Mavericks — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Netsavg 55.7¢	$11.6K	$12.6K	+$995.24	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 44.4¢	$16.2K	$7.3K	-$408.95	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 44.4¢	$5.3K	$4.7K	-$577.6
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 56.6¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$168.65
HI hi774cCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$147.89	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
73 739633786CTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$978.56	$878.48	-$100.08	44% 442-560 (1002)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$508.2	$477.95	-$30.25	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
SE sentrioCTR	Mavericksavg 44.1¢	$295.04	$116.54	-$13.65	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$278	$109.81	-$12.51	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44.5¢	$71.46	$71.47	+$0.01	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$45.45	$17.95	-$2.05	48% 4163-4497 (8660)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$37	$14.62	-$2.04	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$11,639.58

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$995.24

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$16,231.35

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$408.95

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Mavericks$5,259.2944.4¢-$577.6

Nets$2,479.7556.6¢+$168.65

hi774cCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,446.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$147.89

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

739633786CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$978.56

Value

$878.48

PnL

-$100.08

Record

44%

442-560 (1002)

SunlineTickerCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$508.2

Value

$477.95

PnL

-$30.25

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

sentrioCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$295.04

Value

$116.54

PnL

-$13.65

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$278

Value

$109.81

PnL

-$12.51

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$71.46

Value

$71.47

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$45.45

Value

$17.95

PnL

-$2.05

Record

48%

4163-4497 (8660)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$37

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$2.04

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.