Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$16.9

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares13,763

Combined PnL-$13.1

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL+$30

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+50 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HG hgawxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$0	42% 56-78 (134)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$24.24	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$30	52% 26-24 (50)
73 739633786CTR	Overavg 47¢	$314.9	$314.9	+$0	44% 413-535 (948)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$247.18	$256.84	+$9.66	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$167.58	$167.58	+$0	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$350	$166.25	+$1.75	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$118.96	$118.99	+$0.03	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$12	$11.75	-$0.25	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

hgawxCTR

Over

Invested

$4,023.2

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

56-78 (134)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,739.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$24.24

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30

Record

52%

26-24 (50)

739633786CTR

Over

Invested

$314.9

Value

$314.9

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

413-535 (948)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Over

Invested

$247.18

Value

$256.84

PnL

+$9.66

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$167.58

Value

$167.58

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$350

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$118.96

Value

$118.99

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+50 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.