Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Hawks (70%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nets vs. Hawks

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (44%) · Nets at 31¢ · $587 held · ends Nov 8

Nets31¢Hawks69¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$586.59

Combined PnL

-$7.74

Smart Money Entry

32.1¢ → 30.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nets31%

Hawks70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets4 traders

Total Value$346

Total Shares1,116

Combined PnL-$9.14

Hawks5 traders

Total Value$170.72

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$1.4

Nets — 44%Hawks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNets 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Netsavg 31.4¢	$257.43	$254.2	-$3.23	52% 4962-4513 (9475)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Hawksavg 68¢	$86.2	$86.83	+$0.63	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Netsavg 31.6¢	$87.94	$69.88	+$7.43	48% 7430-7967 (15397)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 31.6¢	$51.53	$49.72	+$7.57
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 69.5¢	$20.16	$20.15	-$0.15
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Netsavg 34.1¢	$59.4	$53.99	-$2.61	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawksavg 67.5¢	$37.79	$38.08	+$0.57	54% 10168-8540 (18708)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Netsavg 35.1¢	$34.74	$30.71	-$3.42	48% 7456-8173 (15629)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hawksavg 68.3¢	$26.93	$27	+$0.07	58% 21564-15645 (37209)
PU purplegatto<$100	Hawksavg 69¢	$16.59	$16.71	+$0.12	49% 6360-6522 (12882)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Netsavg 30¢	$6.99	$7.11	+$0.12	53% 2654-2333 (4987)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Hawksavg 69¢	$2.08	$2.1	+$0.02	51% 26669-25270 (51939)

takeormakeCTR

Nets

Invested

$257.43

Value

$254.2

PnL

-$3.23

Record

52%

4962-4513 (9475)

darkumbreon88<$100

Hawks

Invested

$86.2

Value

$86.83

PnL

+$0.63

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

OddstormARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$87.94

Value

$69.88

PnL

+$7.43

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

Both legs:

Nets$51.5331.6¢+$7.57

Hawks$20.1669.5¢-$0.15

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$59.4

Value

$53.99

PnL

-$2.61

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

Pan9X<$100

Hawks

Invested

$37.79

Value

$38.08

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$34.74

Value

$30.71

PnL

-$3.42

Record

48%

7456-8173 (15629)

ghorrock<$100

Hawks

Invested

$26.93

Value

$27

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

21564-15645 (37209)

purplegatto<$100

Hawks

Invested

$16.59

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

6360-6522 (12882)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$6.99

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

2654-2333 (4987)

Flaznorp<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNets 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.