Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 235.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$1.85

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$542.42

Total Shares1,014

Combined PnL+$15.35

Over7 traders

Total Value$543.85

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL-$13.5

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DanielsDixon	Underavg 52¢	$520	$535	+$15	28% 29-73 (102)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$419.54	$415.91	-$3.63	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$301.44	$292.02	-$9.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$118.1	$123.89	+$5.79
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$205.33	$199.18	-$6.15	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$128.95	$126.21	-$2.74	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$120	$111.6	-$3.8	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$73.72	$72.94	-$0.78	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$29.2	$29.3	+$0.1	56% 663-529 (1192)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 51¢	$7.08	$7.42	+$0.35	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.33	-$0.07	43% 851-1135 (1986)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.3	-$0.05	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

DanielsDixon

Under

Invested

$520

Value

$535

PnL

+$15

Record

28%

29-73 (102)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$419.54

Value

$415.91

PnL

-$3.63

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Invested

$205.33

Value

$199.18

PnL

-$6.15

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$128.95

Value

$126.21

PnL

-$2.74

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$120

Value

$111.6

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.72

Value

$72.94

PnL

-$0.78

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.2

Value

$29.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$7.08

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.