Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (40%) · Hawks at 56¢ · $269 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
5
Hawks 40%
$268.63
$3.05
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Hawksavg 56¢ | $168 | $171 | +$3 | 36% 26-47 (73) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 43¢ | $77.79 | $77.79 | -$0 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 43¢ | $10.75 | $10.75 | -$0 | 50% 2215-2229 (4444) |
SU suntori<$100 | Hawksavg 57¢ | $4.76 | $4.76 | +$0 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 43¢ | $4.28 | $4.33 | +$0.05 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
Invested
$168
Value
$171
PnL
+$3
Record
36%
26-47 (73)
Invested
$77.79
Value
$77.79
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$10.75
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
2215-2229 (4444)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.