Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 241.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$2.7K
$169.86
50.7¢ → 70¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chiefphi | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$390 | 53% 125-113 (238) |
TO torta.tech | Underavg 52¢ | $520 | $705 | +$185 | 62% 8331-5009 (13340) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 49.9¢ | $1.0K | $595.43 | -$412.28 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $35.25 | +$8.75 | 53% 6201-5479 (11680) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $9.79 | $9.2 | -$0.59 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $1.47 | -$1.03 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$390
Record
53%
125-113 (238)
Invested
$520
Value
$705
PnL
+$185
Record
62%
8331-5009 (13340)
Invested
$1,007.71
Value
$595.43
PnL
-$412.28
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$35.25
PnL
+$8.75
Record
53%
6201-5479 (11680)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.79
Value
$9.2
PnL
-$0.59
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$1.03
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.