Spread: Pacers (-1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (43%) · Hawks at 91¢ · $564 held · ended Nov 3

Pacers9¢Hawks91¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 43%

Total Value

$563.64

Combined PnL

-$129.37

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 91¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers9%

Hawks91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$449.53

Total Shares576

Combined PnL+$25.07

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$114.11

Total Shares1,215

Combined PnL-$154.43

Hawks — 43%Pacers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Hawksavg 76.8¢	$232.06	$235.56	+$9.54	52% 605-551 (1156)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 75¢	$160.5	$166.92	+$10.7	46% 8112-9453 (17565)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pacersavg 12.8¢	$83.39	$55.53	-$27.86	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Hawksavg 72¢	$43.43	$47.05	+$4.83	51% 4308-4133 (8441)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pacersavg 25.4¢	$164.18	$42.28	-$115.07	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pacersavg 27.1¢	$27.36	$13.63	-$9.18	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 16¢	$5	$2.67	-$2.33	52% 6768-6135 (12903)

Venusian

Hawks

Invested

$232.06

Value

$235.56

PnL

+$9.54

Record

52%

605-551 (1156)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$160.5

Value

$166.92

PnL

+$10.7

Record

46%

8112-9453 (17565)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$83.39

Value

$55.53

PnL

-$27.86

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

6512395314597884<$100

Hawks

Invested

$43.43

Value

$47.05

PnL

+$4.83

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

38791873984189CTR

Pacers

Invested

$164.18

Value

$42.28

PnL

-$115.07

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$27.36

Value

$13.63

PnL

-$9.18

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$2.33

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.