Spread: Hawks (-18.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Hawks23¢Pacers77¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$160.04

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 77.5¢

+31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks23%

Pacers78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,814

Combined PnL+$242.72

Hawks5 traders

Total Value$110.87

Total Shares482

Combined PnL-$82.68

Pacers — 50%Hawks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Pacersavg 59¢	$961.63	$1.1K	+$122.94	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hawksavg 41¢	$900.38	$740.37	-$160.02	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 65¢	$438.73	$577.1	+$138.37
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 41¢	$461.65	$163.27	-$298.39
LI Limousin	Pacersavg 56.7¢	$241.85	$324.72	+$82.87	54% 626-537 (1163)
LI LightParadox	Pacersavg 51¢	$66.81	$112.01	+$45.19	54% 629-546 (1175)
38 38791873984189	Pacersavg 73¢	$109.5	$84	-$25.5	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Hawksavg 43¢	$125.75	$52.64	-$73.11	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Hawksavg 17.8¢	$23.37	$49.78	+$8.07	46% 8112-9453 (17565)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$28.52	$45.74	+$17.22	53% 11337-9944 (21281)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Hawksavg 47¢	$20.59	$6.35	-$14.24	54% 21772-18817 (40589)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hawksavg 38¢	$3.61	$1.38	-$2.23	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hawksavg 38¢	$1.9	$0.73	-$1.17	48% 5733-6182 (11915)

Flaznorp

Pacers

Invested

$961.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$122.94

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$900.38

Value

$740.37

PnL

-$160.02

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

Both legs:

Pacers$438.7365¢+$138.37

Hawks$461.6541¢-$298.39

Limousin

Pacers

Invested

$241.85

Value

$324.72

PnL

+$82.87

Record

54%

626-537 (1163)

LightParadox

Pacers

Invested

$66.81

Value

$112.01

PnL

+$45.19

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

38791873984189

Pacers

Invested

$109.5

Value

$84

PnL

-$25.5

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Hawks

Invested

$125.75

Value

$52.64

PnL

-$73.11

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$23.37

Value

$49.78

PnL

+$8.07

Record

46%

8112-9453 (17565)

justaluckydude<$100

Pacers

Invested

$28.52

Value

$45.74

PnL

+$17.22

Record

53%

11337-9944 (21281)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$20.59

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$14.24

Record

54%

21772-18817 (40589)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$3.61

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$2.23

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$1.17

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.