Spread: Hawks (-10.5)

15 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (45%) · Hawks at 73¢ · $62K held · ended Nov 3

Hawks73¢Pacers27¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 45%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.8K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 72.5¢

+49% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

15 of 33 top traders (45%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks73%

Pacers28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks15 traders

Total Value$37.3K

Total Shares54,121

Combined PnL+$8.9K

Pacers18 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares28,382

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Hawks — 45%Pacers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPacers 58% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 54% · 28

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Hawksavg 50¢	$12.0K	$17.1K	+$5.0K	44% 577-748 (1325)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 47¢	$8.1K	$9.2K	+$1.1K	54% 17538-14741 (32279)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3ARB<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	-$39.57	50% 2586-2585 (5171)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 46¢	$3.9K	$4.9K	+$943.65
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 54¢	$4.8K	$3.8K	-$983.22
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pacersavg 54¢	$4.8K	$3.8K	-$981.31	53% 520-452 (972)
DO DolphinBaller	Hawksavg 50.1¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$971.44	46% 107-126 (233)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Pacersavg 55¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$627.78	46% 472-546 (1018)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Pacersavg 49.5¢	$3.7K	$2.2K	$-1.5K	54% 3481-3017 (6498)
HI hi774c	Hawksavg 47¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$497.36	51% 4861-4606 (9467)
AY ay118	Hawksavg 46¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$368.3	46% 41-48 (89)
SU SunlineTicker	Hawksavg 47.3¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$533.52	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15.31	49% 13586-14336 (27922)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47¢	$598.93	$726.53	+$127.61
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 54¢	$701.6	$558.68	-$142.92
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hawksavg 52¢	$992	$1.2K	+$189	51% 1612-1552 (3164)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pacersavg 46.6¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$289.47	51% 20858-19829 (40687)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 46.6¢	$1.1K	$719.5	-$417.55
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47.1¢	$257.12	$385.2	+$128.08
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pacersavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$88.33	55% 3195-2597 (5792)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47¢	$470	$705	+$235
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 53.5¢	$721.03	$397.7	-$323.33
RN1ARB<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$740	$750	+$10	54% 58340-50554 (108894)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 46.7¢	$350	$528.75	+$178.75
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$390	$221.25	-$168.75
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hawksavg 53.3¢	$745.85	$705.17	-$23.04	47% 13296-14825 (28121)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 53.3¢	$387.27	$512.54	+$125.27
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$339.84	$192.64	-$148.31
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Pacersavg 48¢	$1.1K	$656.88	-$430.37	55% 51-42 (93)
GA gagarin59CTR	Pacersavg 50¢	$1.0K	$580	-$420	51% 741-713 (1454)
LI LimousinCTR	Pacersavg 54¢	$318.64	$314.98	-$3.66	53% 508-458 (966)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Hawksavg 46¢	$230	$285	+$55	53% 5764-5105 (10869)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Pacersavg 54¢	$346.77	$276.13	-$70.64	48% 5652-6118 (11770)
VE Venusian	Hawksavg 41.6¢	$172.31	$234.43	+$62.12	52% 495-455 (950)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pacersavg 49.7¢	$3.3K	$230.51	-$159.91	58% 43802-31874 (75676)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Pacersavg 51.1¢	$241.75	$176.46	-$65.29	50% 34859-34309 (69168)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 51.1¢	$201.5	$114.34	-$87.16
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 46¢	$40.25	$62.13	+$21.88
SE sentrioARB<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$172.4	$154.36	-$18.05	50% 25054-24766 (49820)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 53¢	$138.55	$112.41	-$26.14
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 46¢	$33.85	$41.95	+$8.09

BreakTheBank

Hawks

Invested

$12,018.27

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$8,080.43

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

17538-14741 (32279)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$8,772.89

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$39.57

Record

50%

2586-2585 (5171)

Both legs:

Hawks$3,946.1746¢+$943.65

Pacers$4,826.7254¢-$983.22

LightParadoxCTR

Pacers

Invested

$4,817.34

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$981.31

Record

53%

520-452 (972)

DolphinBaller

Hawks

Invested

$2,336.05

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$971.44

Record

46%

107-126 (233)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Pacers

Invested

$2,877.31

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$627.78

Record

46%

472-546 (1018)

HerdoniaCTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,677.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

3481-3017 (6498)

hi774c

Hawks

Invested

$1,652.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$497.36

Record

51%

4861-4606 (9467)

ay118

Hawks

Invested

$1,540.15

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$368.3

Record

46%

41-48 (89)

SunlineTicker

Hawks

Invested

$1,066.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$533.52

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,300.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15.31

Record

49%

13586-14336 (27922)

Both legs:

Hawks$598.9347¢+$127.61

Pacers$701.654¢-$142.92

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hawks

Invested

$992

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$189

Record

51%

1612-1552 (3164)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,394.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$289.47

Record

51%

20858-19829 (40687)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,137.0546.6¢-$417.55

Hawks$257.1247.1¢+$128.08

Anon455ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,191.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$88.33

Record

55%

3195-2597 (5792)

Both legs:

Hawks$47047¢+$235

Pacers$721.0353.5¢-$323.33

RN1ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$740

Value

$750

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

58340-50554 (108894)

Both legs:

Hawks$35046.7¢+$178.75

Pacers$39052¢-$168.75

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$745.85

Value

$705.17

PnL

-$23.04

Record

47%

13296-14825 (28121)

Both legs:

Hawks$387.2753.3¢+$125.27

Pacers$339.8452¢-$148.31

AppleTiiimeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,087.25

Value

$656.88

PnL

-$430.37

Record

55%

51-42 (93)

gagarin59CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$580

PnL

-$420

Record

51%

741-713 (1454)

LimousinCTR

Pacers

Invested

$318.64

Value

$314.98

PnL

-$3.66

Record

53%

508-458 (966)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Hawks

Invested

$230

Value

$285

PnL

+$55

Record

53%

5764-5105 (10869)

ferdinand2CTR

Pacers

Invested

$346.77

Value

$276.13

PnL

-$70.64

Record

48%

5652-6118 (11770)

Venusian

Hawks

Invested

$172.31

Value

$234.43

PnL

+$62.12

Record

52%

495-455 (950)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,304.84

Value

$230.51

PnL

-$159.91

Record

58%

43802-31874 (75676)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$241.75

Value

$176.46

PnL

-$65.29

Record

50%

34859-34309 (69168)

Both legs:

Pacers$201.551.1¢-$87.16

Hawks$40.2546¢+$21.88

sentrioARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$172.4

Value

$154.36

PnL

-$18.05

Record

50%

25054-24766 (49820)

Both legs:

Pacers$138.5553¢-$26.14

Hawks$33.8546¢+$8.09

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

15 of 33 top traders (45%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPacers 58% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 54% · 28

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.