Spread: Hawks (-5.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (38%) · Hawks at 56¢ · $365 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
8
Hawks 38%
$364.63
-$10.52
54.8¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Hawksavg 55¢ | $275 | $265 | -$10 | 38% 17-28 (45) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Hawksavg 53¢ | $35.96 | $35.96 | +$0 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 47¢ | $31.89 | $31.21 | -$0.68 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 43¢ | $15.95 | $16.13 | +$0.19 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $9.2 | +$0 | 49% 1307-1356 (2663) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Hawksavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.65 | -$0.15 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bullsavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.3 | +$0.1 | 40% 589-893 (1482) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.18 | +$0.02 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
Invested
$275
Value
$265
PnL
-$10
Record
38%
17-28 (45)
Invested
$35.96
Value
$35.96
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$31.89
Value
$31.21
PnL
-$0.68
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
Invested
$15.95
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1307-1356 (2663)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
40%
589-893 (1482)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0.02
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.