Will San Diego FC win on 2026-10-28?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$5.1K
$161.06
94.6¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LonnieHawkinss | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.9K | $2.5K | -$15.35 | 52% 1830-1709 (3539) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 82¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$199.22 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 99.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$2.99 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $82.17 | $82.17 | +$0 | 53% 15797-13980 (29777) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $62.99 | $57.7 | -$5.29 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $34.07 | $34.07 | -$0 | 51% 202-194 (396) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $23.52 | $22.56 | -$0.96 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $18.8 | -$0.4 | 57% 2083-1561 (3644) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $15.53 | $14.08 | -$1.45 | 67% 23153-11555 (34708) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $7.03 | $7.53 | +$0.5 | 50% 10665-10524 (21189) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $20.02 | $1.82 | -$18.19 | 52% 13603-12436 (26039) |
LonnieHawkinssInvested
$2,865.79
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$15.35
Record
52%
1830-1709 (3539)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,020.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$199.22
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
Invested
$1,151.46
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$2.99
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
Invested
$82.17
Value
$82.17
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15797-13980 (29777)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$62.99
Value
$57.7
PnL
-$5.29
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
Invested
$34.07
Value
$34.07
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
202-194 (396)
Invested
$23.52
Value
$22.56
PnL
-$0.96
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$0.4
Record
57%
2083-1561 (3644)
Invested
$15.53
Value
$14.08
PnL
-$1.45
Record
67%
23153-11555 (34708)
Invested
$7.03
Value
$7.53
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
10665-10524 (21189)
Invested
$20.02
Value
$1.82
PnL
-$18.19
Record
52%
13603-12436 (26039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.