Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $399 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$399.47

Combined PnL

-$152.41

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$347.77

Total Shares729

Combined PnL-$137.6

Over2 traders

Total Value$51.7

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$14.81

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 71.3¢	$481.32	$347.74	-$133.58	72% 2430-936 (3366)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 78¢	$42.59	$26.48	-$16.11	64% 1125-646 (1771)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 46¢	$23.92	$25.22	+$1.3	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 7.5¢	$4.05	$0.03	-$4.02	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$481.32

Value

$347.74

PnL

-$133.58

Record

72%

2430-936 (3366)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$42.59

Value

$26.48

PnL

-$16.11

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$23.92

Value

$25.22

PnL

+$1.3

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.02

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.