Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Dallas win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 41¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

-$1.72

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 40.5¢

-36% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,067

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,205

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 64.7¢	$5.1K	$4.2K	-$884.28	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 48.9¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$390.12	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 33.4¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$686.73	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 66.9¢	$810.13	$627.16	-$182.97	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 50.8¢	$566.41	$545.14	-$21.26	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 52.5¢	$315.94	$312.93	-$3	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.5¢	$251.53	$242.02	-$9.51
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$64.4	$70.91	+$6.51
SH shiifooARB<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$97.86	$114.41	+$16.55	60% 3370-2270 (5640)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.5¢	$39.51	$68.07	+$28.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$58.35	$46.34	-$12.01
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 51.7¢	$99.27	$100.55	+$1.28	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$40	$50	+$10	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$22.5	$26.75	+$4.25
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$17.5	$23.25	+$5.75
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$31.62	$41.85	+$10.23	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$40.15	$34.88	-$5.27	77% 3341-1010 (4351)
fyrsken<$100	Noavg 46¢	$13.59	$15.37	+$0.74	49% 282-298 (580)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$8.38	$11.68	+$3.29	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$9.17	$11.58	+$2.41	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$8.4	$7.68	-$0.72	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$7	$6.23	-$0.32	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 60¢	$5	$4.12	-$0.87	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.17	$1.36	-$0.81	55% 7136-5731 (12867)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,111.24

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$884.28

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,862.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$390.12

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$1,752.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$686.73

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$810.13

Value

$627.16

PnL

-$182.97

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$566.41

Value

$545.14

PnL

-$21.26

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$315.94

Value

$312.93

PnL

-$3

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Both legs:

Yes$251.5352.5¢-$9.51

No$64.445¢+$6.51

shiifooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.86

Value

$114.41

PnL

+$16.55

Record

60%

3370-2270 (5640)

Both legs:

Invested

$99.27

Value

$100.55

PnL

+$1.28

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$50

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

Both legs:

Invested

$31.62

Value

$41.85

PnL

+$10.23

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Vampiro1<$100

Invested

$40.15

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$5.27

Record

77%

3341-1010 (4351)

fyrsken<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

$15.37

PnL

+$0.74

Record

49%

282-298 (580)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.38

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$3.29

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.17

Value

$11.58

PnL

+$2.41

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$0.72

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

foooool<$100

Invested

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.87

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.81

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.