Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Real Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 34¢ · $438 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$438
-$4.11
35¢ → 34¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $400 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $132 | +$32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $68 | -$32 | |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $99 | $99 | -$0 | 48% 62379-67237 (129616) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $50.3 | $48.69 | -$1.61 | 48% 1756-1884 (3640) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $50.2 | $48.6 | -$1.6 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $28.1 | $27.2 | -$0.9 | 49% 1777-1875 (3652) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $9.81 | $9.81 | -$0 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $4.71 | $4.71 | +$0 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$400
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$99
Value
$99
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
62379-67237 (129616)
Invested
$50.3
Value
$48.69
PnL
-$1.61
Record
48%
1756-1884 (3640)
Invested
$50.2
Value
$48.6
PnL
-$1.6
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$28.1
Value
$27.2
PnL
-$0.9
Record
49%
1777-1875 (3652)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$9.81
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$4.71
Value
$4.71
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.