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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Portland Timbers vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5

Resolved Over. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

17

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%
Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares7,178
Combined PnL$-4.1K
Over8 traders
Total Value$313.17
Total Shares313
Combined PnL+$120.9
Under — 53%Over — 47%
GO
GoalLineGhostARB<$100
Under

Invested

$7,761.67

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

26105-25975 (52080)

Both legs:

Under$4,253.5651.6¢$-4.3K
Over$3,508.1152.6¢+$3.2K
UP
UpTheBluesCTR
Under

Invested

$2,742.47

Value

—

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

58%

47746-33933 (81679)

LA
LaarsYCTR
Under

Invested

$772.08

Value

—

PnL

-$772.08

Record

51%

3450-3374 (6824)

FO
fooooolCTR
Under

Invested

$340.12

Value

—

PnL

-$340.12

Record

50%

11385-11227 (22612)

TO
topdogbigboiCTR
Under

Invested

$127.87

Value

—

PnL

-$127.87

Record

48%

9549-10314 (19863)

poshposhCTR
Under

Invested

$107.79

Value

—

PnL

-$107.79

Record

58%

10965-7944 (18909)

CH
chongchong37
Over

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$49

Record

52%

121-111 (232)

LU
LuckyLoo
Over

Invested

$92.45

Value

$152.73

PnL

+$60.28

Record

49%

13257-13968 (27225)

HRTradingCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$13.48

Value

—

PnL

-$13.48

Record

53%

6276-5638 (11914)

SN
SnakeBall<$100
Over

Invested

$38.05

Value

$60.39

PnL

+$22.35

Record

50%

34214-33759 (67973)

CC
ccllarCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$9.6

Value

—

PnL

-$9.6

Record

47%

475-537 (1012)

VA
Vampiro1<$100
Over

Invested

$22.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$1.96

Record

77%

3542-1060 (4602)

LonnieHawkinss<$100
Over

Invested

$4.28

Value

$0

PnL

+$4.71

Record

52%

1982-1810 (3792)

NO
NordhavenCap<$100
Over

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

2279-1675 (3954)

TO
torta.tech<$100
Over

Invested

$69.43

Value

—

PnL

-$19.65

Record

62%

8260-4969 (13229)

ARTEM-DZYUBA
Over

Invested

$247.5

Value

—

PnL

+$2.25

Record

85%

6096-1039 (7135)

AN
AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100
Under

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

6904-2705 (9609)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100
Under

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

43210-31449 (74659)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x3fb060bc...f5b202
Slug
mls-por-hou-2026-11-01-total-2pt5

Traders in this Market

GO

GoalLineGhost

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.1K
UP

UpTheBlues

CTR

Under — $0

$-2.7K
LA

LaarsY

CTR

Under — $0

-$772.08
FO

foooool

CTR

Under — $0

-$340.12
TO

topdogbigboi

CTR

Under — $0

-$127.87

poshposh

CTR

Under — $0

-$107.79
CH

chongchong37

Over — $100

+$49
LU

LuckyLoo

Over — $152.73

+$60.28

HRTrading

CTR

Under — $0

-$13.48
SN

SnakeBall

Over — $60.39

+$22.35
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