Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.9K
$106.24
46.4¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $728.96 | $536.38 | -$192.58 | 59% 311-216 (527) |
HI hi774cCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $322.89 | $424.67 | +$101.78 | 52% 4713-4425 (9138) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $207 | $272.25 | +$65.25 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
 fyrskenCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $191.99 | $241.99 | +$50 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 46.1¢ | $178.52 | $234.14 | +$55.61 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $107.64 | $141.57 | +$33.93 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $23.02 | $17.49 | -$5.53 | 49% 18979-19390 (38369) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $9.23 | $7.01 | -$2.22 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
Invested
$728.96
Value
$536.38
PnL
-$192.58
Record
59%
311-216 (527)
Invested
$322.89
Value
$424.67
PnL
+$101.78
Record
52%
4713-4425 (9138)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$207
Value
$272.25
PnL
+$65.25
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$191.99
Value
$241.99
PnL
+$50
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$178.52
Value
$234.14
PnL
+$55.61
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$107.64
Value
$141.57
PnL
+$33.93
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$23.02
Value
$17.49
PnL
-$5.53
Record
49%
18979-19390 (38369)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.23
Value
$7.01
PnL
-$2.22
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.