Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Orlando City SC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to Score

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 43¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$293.88

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 42.5¢

-37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,433

Combined PnL+$896.89

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,563

Combined PnL-$603.01

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 29.9¢	$452.13	$869.98	+$417.85	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LI Limousin	Noavg 29.8¢	$350.71	$677.32	+$326.61	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 66.5¢	$950.45	$666.35	-$284.1	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 70.5¢	$605.79	$586.46	-$19.33	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$212.6	$349.38	+$136.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.5¢	$393.19	$237.08	-$156.11
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 73¢	$610.82	$355.61	-$255.21	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
VE Venusian	Noavg 27.5¢	$100.85	$211.2	+$110.35	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$200	-$0	— 1-0 (1)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 48¢	$158.15	$189.6	+$31.45	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 71.7¢	$161.25	$91.8	-$62.7	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 27¢	$8.52	$18.15	+$9.63	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 50¢	$6.71	$7.71	+$1.01	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$6.71	$5.7	-$1.01	57% 2487-1893 (4380)

LightParadox

Invested

$452.13

Value

$869.98

PnL

+$417.85

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Limousin

Invested

$350.71

Value

$677.32

PnL

+$326.61

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$950.45

Value

$666.35

PnL

-$284.1

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$605.79

Value

$586.46

PnL

-$19.33

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$212.635¢+$136.78

Yes$393.1970.5¢-$156.11

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$610.82

Value

$355.61

PnL

-$255.21

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Venusian

Invested

$100.85

Value

$211.2

PnL

+$110.35

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

MadridTime

Invested

$158.15

Value

$189.6

PnL

+$31.45

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.25

Value

$91.8

PnL

-$62.7

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$8.52

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$9.63

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$1.01

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.71

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$1.01

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.