Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CF Montréal vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$16.55
44.3¢ → 42.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 44.3¢ | $730.93 | $759.46 | +$28.53 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 56.3¢ | $562.5 | $550 | -$12.5 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 55.9¢ | $204.69 | $206.86 | +$2.17 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.9¢ | $159.64 | $164.31 | +$4.67 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $45.05 | $42.55 | -$2.5 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.2¢ | $8.85 | $9.2 | +$0.35 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $3.33 | $3.27 | -$0.06 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $5 | $2.33 | +$0.18 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.3 | +$0.05 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$730.93
Value
$759.46
PnL
+$28.53
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
VeryLucky888Invested
$562.5
Value
$550
PnL
-$12.5
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$204.69
Value
$206.86
PnL
+$2.17
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.85
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$3.27
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.