Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 31¢ · $522 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$521.96
-$5.3
31.1¢ → 30.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $236.74 | $308.07 | +$10.25 | 51% 23440-22208 (45648) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 30¢ | $156.11 | $156.11 | +$1.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 66.2¢ | $144.75 | $151.97 | +$9.14 | |
FE ferdinand2CTR | Noavg 30¢ | $127.65 | $127.65 | +$2.13 | 48% 6175-6580 (12755) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.4¢ | $45.71 | $61.5 | -$7.48 | 48% 14412-15920 (30332) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $16.33 | $16.25 | -$0.09 | 58% 44668-32527 (77195) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $8.49 | $8.49 | +$0.14 | 51% 7362-7108 (14470) |
Invested
$236.74
Value
$308.07
PnL
+$10.25
Record
51%
23440-22208 (45648)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.65
Value
$127.65
PnL
+$2.13
Record
48%
6175-6580 (12755)
Invested
$45.71
Value
$61.5
PnL
-$7.48
Record
48%
14412-15920 (30332)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.33
Value
$16.25
PnL
-$0.09
Record
58%
44668-32527 (77195)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.49
Value
$8.49
PnL
+$0.14
Record
51%
7362-7108 (14470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.