Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 87¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$264.84
$0.22
85.6¢ → 86.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 85¢ | $160.08 | $161.97 | +$0.94 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $86.79 | $86.19 | -$0.6 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $7.77 | $7.76 | -$0.01 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $7.06 | $7.01 | -$0.05 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $1.75 | $1.9 | -$0.06 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$160.08
Value
$161.97
PnL
+$0.94
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$86.79
Value
$86.19
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$7.76
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$7.06
Value
$7.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.