Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$131.21

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,610

Combined PnL+$120.63

Over5 traders

Total Value$211.57

Total Shares1,057

Combined PnL+$10.58

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 80.4¢	$668.09	$744.72	+$76.63	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 84¢	$474.29	$480	+$5.7	72% 2451-940 (3391)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 78.3¢	$224.8	$254.55	+$29.75	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 20.2¢	$167.99	$124.65	-$43.34	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$27	$72	+$45	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 58.3¢	$44.81	$52.65	+$7.84	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$1.6	$8.4	+$6.8	59% 30514-21223 (51737)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$3	$3.6	+$0.6	47% 4596-5101 (9697)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.4	$2.92	+$1.52	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60¢	$1.05	$1.75	+$0.7	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$668.09

Value

$744.72

PnL

+$76.63

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$474.29

Value

$480

PnL

+$5.7

Record

72%

2451-940 (3391)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$224.8

Value

$254.55

PnL

+$29.75

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$167.99

Value

$124.65

PnL

-$43.34

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27

Value

$72

PnL

+$45

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$44.81

Value

$52.65

PnL

+$7.84

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$6.8

Record

59%

30514-21223 (51737)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

4596-5101 (9697)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.4

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.