Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$221.45

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$901.31

Total Shares2,016

Combined PnL-$308.77

Over6 traders

Total Value$600.11

Total Shares897

Combined PnL+$87.32

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 41.4¢	$670.19	$343.16	-$327.03	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 60.9¢	$311.85	$325.12	+$13.27	72% 2451-940 (3391)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 45¢	$180.53	$248.62	+$68.09	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 56¢	$223.01	$233	+$9.99	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 56.2¢	$188.07	$215.79	+$27.72	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 51¢	$124.27	$118.18	-$6.09	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 51.7¢	$12.4	$11.64	-$0.76	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 68¢	$6.37	$4.54	-$1.83	59% 30514-21223 (51737)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 86¢	$1.15	$1.34	+$0.19	55% 8318-6708 (15026)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$4.2	$0.02	-$4.19	47% 4596-5101 (9697)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.83	$0.01	-$0.82	59% 10284-7273 (17557)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$670.19

Value

$343.16

PnL

-$327.03

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$311.85

Value

$325.12

PnL

+$13.27

Record

72%

2451-940 (3391)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$180.53

Value

$248.62

PnL

+$68.09

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$223.01

Value

$233

PnL

+$9.99

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$188.07

Value

$215.79

PnL

+$27.72

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$124.27

Value

$118.18

PnL

-$6.09

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$12.4

Value

$11.64

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$6.37

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$1.83

Record

59%

30514-21223 (51737)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

8318-6708 (15026)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.19

Record

47%

4596-5101 (9697)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.82

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.