Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.1K

Combined PnL

$595.24

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 99.5¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$41.9K

Total Shares44,282

Combined PnL+$6.2K

No6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares53,125

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 80.4¢	$34.3K	$40.4K	+$6.0K	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 18.7¢	$7.6K	$2.2K	$-5.4K	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 23.6¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$296.26	50% 34197-33747 (67944)
LonnieHawkinss	Yesavg 98.5¢	$825.42	$833.61	+$8.19	52% 1982-1810 (3792)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Noavg 29¢	$674.37	$662.94	-$11.43	58% 2276-1668 (3944)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 69.4¢	$469.95	$523.63	+$53.69	52% 14000-12774 (26774)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 18.3¢	$842.43	$368.59	-$473.84	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$327.02	$249.98	-$77.04	50% 11378-11225 (22603)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72.1¢	$148.97	$193.08	+$44.11
└ No leg	Noavg 20.3¢	$178.05	$56.9	-$121.14
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 47¢	$74.16	$157.13	+$82.97	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$72.21	$50.25	+$28.22	53% 2302-2010 (4312)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$52.91	$38.08	-$14.83	53% 6253-5611 (11864)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$10	$10.15	+$0.15	66% 23569-11896 (35465)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$49.03	$0.78	-$48.25	58% 10953-7928 (18881)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$34,313.7

Value

$40.4K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$7,594.06

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,301.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$296.26

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

LonnieHawkinss

Yes

Invested

$825.42

Value

$833.61

PnL

+$8.19

Record

52%

1982-1810 (3792)

NordhavenCapCTR

Invested

$674.37

Value

$662.94

PnL

-$11.43

Record

58%

2276-1668 (3944)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$469.95

Value

$523.63

PnL

+$53.69

Record

52%

14000-12774 (26774)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$842.43

Value

$368.59

PnL

-$473.84

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$327.02

Value

$249.98

PnL

-$77.04

Record

50%

11378-11225 (22603)

Both legs:

Yes$148.9772.1¢+$44.11

No$178.0520.3¢-$121.14

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$74.16

Value

$157.13

PnL

+$82.97

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.21

Value

$50.25

PnL

+$28.22

Record

53%

2302-2010 (4312)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$52.91

Value

$38.08

PnL

-$14.83

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

66%

23569-11896 (35465)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$49.03

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$48.25

Record

58%

10953-7928 (18881)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.