Will Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

-$378.65

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 99.5¢

+17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares22,797

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares24,313

Combined PnL$-2.0K

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 85¢	$15.9K	$17.6K	+$1.7K	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 82¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$31.1	50% 34197-33747 (67944)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 14.8¢	$3.2K	$1.2K	$-2.0K	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 90¢	$579.87	$534.77	-$45.1	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$432.15	$419.81	-$12.34	58% 2276-1668 (3944)
FO foooool	Noavg 83.5¢	$162.27	$161.3	-$0.98	50% 11378-11225 (22603)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$85.32	$81.6	-$3.72	52% 14000-12774 (26774)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$43.59	$44.77	+$1.17	52% 1982-1810 (3792)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 92¢	$27.12	$29.39	+$2.27	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 98¢	$10	$10.15	+$0.15	66% 23569-11896 (35465)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$5.72	$5.64	-$0.08	53% 6253-5611 (11864)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$15,945.8

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,488.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$31.1

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,233.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$579.87

Value

$534.77

PnL

-$45.1

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

NordhavenCapCTR

Yes

Invested

$432.15

Value

$419.81

PnL

-$12.34

Record

58%

2276-1668 (3944)

foooool

Invested

$162.27

Value

$161.3

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

11378-11225 (22603)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$85.32

Value

$81.6

PnL

-$3.72

Record

52%

14000-12774 (26774)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Invested

$43.59

Value

$44.77

PnL

+$1.17

Record

52%

1982-1810 (3792)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$27.12

Value

$29.39

PnL

+$2.27

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

66%

23569-11896 (35465)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.