Houston Dynamo vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (77%) · Under at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 77%

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$9.5K

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 99.5¢

+113% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares20,491

Combined PnL+$9.9K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,995

Combined PnL-$369.71

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 47¢	$4.8K	$10.2K	+$5.4K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 47.4¢	$1.3K	$2.4K	+$1.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 34.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$52.07	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0xheavy888	Underavg 46.6¢	$907.01	$1.9K	+$1.0K	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
GC GC-P	Underavg 46.5¢	$790.5	$1.7K	+$901	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-P	Underavg 46.5¢	$790.5	$1.7K	+$901	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 46¢	$463.32	$995	+$535	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI Limousin	Underavg 44.6¢	$634.76	$704.48	+$69.72	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 40.1¢	$442.21	$116.3	-$315.91	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$35.39	$39.25	+$3.86	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$36.73	$35	-$1.73	49% 146-152 (298)
AY ay118<$100	Underavg 47¢	$11.75	$24.88	+$13.13	44% 57-73 (130)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$3.04	$3.48	+$0.44	49% 1800-1902 (3702)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$4,798.89

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,348.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,031.91

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$52.07

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$907.01

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$790.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$901

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$790.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$901

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$463.32

Value

$995

PnL

+$535

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$634.76

Value

$704.48

PnL

+$69.72

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$442.21

Value

$116.3

PnL

-$315.91

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$35.39

Value

$39.25

PnL

+$3.86

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.73

Value

$35

PnL

-$1.73

Record

49%

146-152 (298)

ay118<$100

Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$13.13

Record

44%

57-73 (130)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.