Charlotte FC vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 100¢

+95% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,508

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Over5 traders

Total Value$247.08

Total Shares713

Combined PnL-$161.21

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 55.6¢	$3.0K	$5.3K	+$2.4K	72% 2416-933 (3349)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 46.1¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$297.68	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 42¢	$535.74	$1.2K	+$649.75	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 37.6¢	$160.07	$200.18	+$40.12	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 42¢	$126	$153	+$27	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 40¢	$12	$29.85	+$17.85	47% 4585-5090 (9675)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$25.3	$22.54	-$2.76	50% 7034-7032 (14066)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$23.54	$21.36	-$2.18	57% 2168-1605 (3773)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 43.2¢	$103.38	$2.93	-$100.46	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 64¢	$96	$0.08	-$95.93	59% 10226-7214 (17440)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,983.08

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

72%

2416-933 (3349)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,326.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$297.68

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$535.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$649.75

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$160.07

Value

$200.18

PnL

+$40.12

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$126

Value

$153

PnL

+$27

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$17.85

Record

47%

4585-5090 (9675)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.3

Value

$22.54

PnL

-$2.76

Record

50%

7034-7032 (14066)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.54

Value

$21.36

PnL

-$2.18

Record

57%

2168-1605 (3773)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$103.38

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$100.46

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$96

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$95.93

Record

59%

10226-7214 (17440)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.