Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 0.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$18.1K
$8.73
94.1¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LonnieHawkinss | Overavg 94.1¢ | $14.1K | $15.0K | +$873.22 | 52% 1894-1755 (3649) |
NO NordhavenCap | Overavg 94.1¢ | $2.9K | $3.1K | +$179.05 | 57% 2168-1606 (3774) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Overavg 98.7¢ | $49.99 | $50.62 | +$0.63 | 51% 480-462 (942) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 5.9¢ | $1.1K | $8.91 | $-1.0K | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.9¢ | $1.18 | $0.34 | -$0.84 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.4¢ | $0.22 | $0 | -$0.22 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 1.7¢ | $0.05 | $0 | -$0.05 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
LonnieHawkinssInvested
$14,079.02
Value
$15.0K
PnL
+$873.22
Record
52%
1894-1755 (3649)
Invested
$2,880
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$179.05
Record
57%
2168-1606 (3774)
Invested
$49.99
Value
$50.62
PnL
+$0.63
Record
51%
480-462 (942)
Invested
$1,051.97
Value
$8.91
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.18
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$0.84
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.22
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.05
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.