Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 68¢ · $243 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$243.27
-$1.38
71.8¢ → 67.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fyrskenCTR | Noavg 31¢ | $93 | $121.5 | +$1.5 | 49% 281-295 (576) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Yesavg 72¢ | $91.98 | $86.87 | -$5.11 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $19.46 | $28.15 | +$2.43 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yesavg 69.5¢ | $6.95 | $6.75 | -$0.2 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
fyrskenCTRInvested
$93
Value
$121.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
49%
281-295 (576)
Invested
$91.98
Value
$86.87
PnL
-$5.11
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.46
Value
$28.15
PnL
+$2.43
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.